What’s Next for Real Estate? A September 2025 Market Outlook

As of late August, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering around 6.6%. That’s lower than the highs we saw earlier this summer, when rates briefly jumped over 7% in June, sparking concerns about affordability and slowing sales.

Over the summer:

• June 2025: Rates spiked past 7%, sidelining some buyers.
• July 2025: A mild cooling brought them down into the mid-6% range.
• August 2025: Rates steadied at roughly 6.6%, giving the market some breathing room.

The slight decline has been enough to coax some buyers back into the market, but affordability challenges remain compared to the sub-3% mortgage era of 2020–2021.

Industry experts are cautiously optimistic that September will bring more stability in mortgage rates and a modest boost in market activity. Let’s break down the main forecasts.

Mortgage Rate Movement

Expected range: Most analysts believe rates will hold between 6.4% and 6.7% in September.

Why the stability? Inflation pressures have eased slightly, and the Federal Reserve has signaled patience with additional rate hikes. Unless there’s a major economic surprise, big swings are unlikely.

Buyer impact: A stable rate environment helps buyers plan with more confidence. Even if affordability remains tight, predictability encourages those who were waiting for calmer conditions.

Buyer Activity

Expect a seasonal uptick in buyers. September traditionally sees renewed activity as families settle into fall routines.

With rates no longer climbing sharply, some buyers who paused over the summer may return to house hunting.

That said, affordability remains a hurdle—so many buyers will continue shopping cautiously and negotiating harder.

Listing Inventory

Sellers who delayed summer listings may choose to enter the market in September.

Northern Virginia and the DC metro typically see a small fall surge in inventory, especially in commuter-friendly suburbs like Reston, Fairfax, Arlington, and Silver Spring.

More listings can ease pressure for buyers, but inventory is still well below pre-pandemic levels. Sellers remain in a relatively strong position.

Beyond the numbers, September kicks off a seasonal rhythm in real estate that matters for both buyers and sellers.

1. Buyers Will Be More Serious
   Fall buyers tend to be motivated. Unlike the “looky-loo” traffic of spring, most buyers house hunting in September and October are doing so with intent. They want to close before the holidays or even settle in before year-end tax deadlines.
2. Homes Priced Right Will Move Quickly
   Even with affordability pressures, well-priced homes in popular Northern VA/DC/MD neighborhoods are still attracting multiple offers. Overpricing, however, is punished quickly. Buyers are savvy, watching comps, and less likely to stretch beyond budget.
3. Sellers Face a Narrower Window
   The “sweet spot” for fall listings is September through mid-October. After Halloween, buyer activity typically slows as the holiday season takes priority. Sellers who want strong fall exposure should aim to list sooner rather than later.
4. Condos vs. Single-Family Homes
   Condos: Urban condos in DC and Arlington are seeing steadier demand than earlier this year, driven by young professionals who value location over square footage.
   Single-family homes: Still the hottest commodity in Fairfax, Loudoun, and Montgomery Counties, especially those near top-rated schools.

Key Trends:

• ✓ Motivated fall buyers
• ✓ Quick sales for right-priced homes
• ✓ Narrow listing window
• ✓ Demand for condos and single-family

Here’s how these national and seasonal factors translate locally:

Northern Virginia

Fairfax County: Expect active listings in Reston, Vienna, and Fairfax City to pick up as families list before winter. Homes priced under $800k will see the strongest buyer pool.

Arlington & Alexandria: Condo activity is steady, but buyers have more leverage than they did in spring. Single-family homes near Metro stops remain in high demand.

Loudoun County: Suburban demand continues, especially for newer builds in Ashburn and Brambleton. Homes priced competitively will attract serious fall buyers.

Washington, DC

Inventory is improving, especially for condos. Buyers have slightly more negotiating room on price and closing costs than in Northern VA.

Historic row homes remain hot, especially in neighborhoods like Capitol Hill and Logan Circle.

Maryland Suburbs

Montgomery County’s single-family market is strong, particularly in Bethesda and Rockville.

Prince George’s County remains one of the most affordable pockets near the Beltway, drawing first-time buyers squeezed by higher mortgage rates.

Overall, the DC metro market is showing signs of balance but is still seller-friendly, especially for well-priced and move-in-ready homes.

Local Highlights:

• ✓ Surge in Fairfax listings
• ✓ Steady DC condo demand
• ✓ Strong suburban markets
• ✓ Seller-friendly balance

September 2025 is shaping up to be a month of relative stability in the housing market. Mortgage rates have steadied around 6.6%, buyer activity is expected to tick up after summer’s slowdown, and inventory will likely see a seasonal lift.

For sellers in Northern VA, DC, and Maryland, this means now is a strategic time to list—before the holiday slowdown kicks in. For buyers, the return of listings and stable rates make fall a good window to shop, provided you stay disciplined with budget and negotiate wisely.

If you’ve been waiting for clarity in the market, September brings a more predictable environment to make your move.

Key Takeaways:

• ✓ Stable rates around 6.6%
• ✓ Uptick in buyer activity
• ✓ Seasonal inventory lift
• ✓ Strategic time for sellers and buyers

Will mortgage rates drop below 6% this fall?

Unlikely. Analysts expect rates to hover in the mid-6% range through the end of 2025. A major drop would require more aggressive Federal Reserve cuts, which are not currently forecasted.

Is fall a good time to sell my home in Northern Virginia?

Yes—September and early October are strong months to list. Motivated buyers are out, and competition from new listings is manageable. Waiting until November may mean fewer buyers and slower traffic.

Are buyers getting more negotiating power?

Somewhat. In DC condos and higher-priced suburban homes, buyers have more leverage. But in the $500k–$800k single-family market, sellers still hold the upper hand if the home is priced right.

How long are homes staying on the market now?

In Northern VA and Maryland suburbs, average days on market are around 18–24 days. In DC condos, it’s closer to 30 days.

Should I wait until spring 2026 to buy or sell?

It depends on your situation. Spring traditionally brings more listings, but also more competition. If you’re serious now, fall 2025 offers stable rates, motivated buyers, and a solid selling window.